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Project Risk Analysis

Welcome to Project Risk Analysis from Katmar Software.  This help will be enough to get  you going if you have some experience in risk analysis.  If you want a permanent reference, or if you are just starting with Risk Analysis and would like to work through the tutorials you can print out the manual.

Introduction to PRA

Overview of Risk Analysis

Adding / Editing Cost Information

Contingency Determination

Deleting Cost Information

Project Heading

Saving and Loading Data

Setting the Options

Importing ASCII spreadsheet files

Analyzing the Cost Information

Interpreting the Graphs

Statistical Information

How to Register

Licence Agreement

Obtaining Support

Other Software from Katmar Software

The Shareware Distribution System

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Overview of Risk Analysis

The fundamental concept in this type of risk analysis is to break the cost estimate down into independent categories, and then to define the statistical distributions of the estimated costs for each category.  The Monte Carlo method is then used by the program to determine the cost probability distribution for the project as a whole.

This may sound complicated, but all it means is that for each category you must enter the Most Likely Cost, the Low Cost, the High Cost and how the probability of the cost varies over the range from Low Cost to High Cost.  The probability distribution models that are built into PRA are the Triangular, Normal and LogNormal Distributions.  These three distributions will cover almost anything you will encounter in the real world of cost estimating.

The Most Likely Cost (MLC) is what was traditionally called the "best estimate" for each category, and is the cost that is more likely to occur than any other particular cost.  Statistically this is different from the "Expected Cost".  This difference is described in detail in the Tutorial section "Using Statistical Distributions in Estimating" in the manual.

When using a Triangular Distribution the Low and High Costs are the absolute lowest and highest costs anticipated.  The Triangular Distribution then allocates probabilities for each cost within the interval between Low and High such that the probabilities vary linearly from zero at the Low Cost, up to a maximum at the MLC and then down to zero again at the High Cost.  This means that there is no possibility of the cost being less than the Low Cost, or of being more than the High Cost.

The Normal Distribution is the well known "Bell" or "Gaussian" Curve.  In theory the probability for this distribution never reaches zero, so it is not possible to define absolute lowest and highest costs, as we can for the Triangular Distribution.  Some risk analysis programs overcome this by using the Standard Deviation to define the distribution of probabilities.  This is theoretically the correct way to do it, but in practice we seldom know the Standard Deviation.  In PRA this problem is overcome by defining the Low and High Costs such that there is a 98% probability that the actual cost will be between them;  and there is a 1% chance that it will be beyond either one of them.  The Normal Distribution is symmetrical, so the MLC is simply the mean cost.  Defining the mean cost and the Low Cost automatically defines the High Cost as well, since the mean cost is exactly half way between the Low and High Costs (ie  HC - MLC  =  MLC - LC ).

The LogNormal Distribution is a very useful distribution in that it is skewed towards high costs.  Data from completed projects shows that it is possible to overspend by more than by which it is possible to underspend.  (We can never escape Mr Murphy!)  This distribution also never reaches a zero probability so we use the same method as with the Normal Distribution in defining Low and High Costs that will cover 98% of the cases.  But, here we have to specify both of the interval limits because the distribution is asymmetrical.

When you run the program, the first screen that appears is the Data Entry screen.  This looks like a spreadsheet, except that the columns are pre-defined and that you can't leave any blank rows between your first and last lines of data.  You can Add, Insert, Edit and Delete rows using the buttons along the bottom of the screen.  Clicking any of these buttons will bring up an Edit Dialog form.  This form is used for data entry rather than typing directly into the spreadsheet to facilitate data validation.

The Add procedure will automatically put the new information in the next empty row, below all the existing data.  Before you click any of the Insert, Edit or Delete buttons you must click anywhere in the row on which you want to perform the operation.

Use File | Open to load one of the example projects that are included with the shareware package, and experiment with these editing procedures.  The example files are named "PRA_EGnn.RSK",  where "nn" is the example number.

In order to identify your project data use the File | Project Heading menu function to add a description for your cost data.  This information will be shown on all printed reports.

Once you have entered all your cost data you must set the Options you want.  This is done by selecting Options on the main menu.  These allow you to set the number of iterations, the number of classes (ie bars on the histogram) and the seed value for the random number generator.

In order to calculate the risks and contingencies, click the Analyze button in the bottom left corner of the window.  The calculation can take from a few seconds to several minutes, depending on the amount of data, the number of iterations, and the speed of your computer.  A progress bar will show you how far the calculation has proceeded.

Once the calculation is complete the histogram showing the probability distribution for the total project cost will be shown.  The same information can be shown on an "S"-Curve by clicking the Swap Graphs button.

This graphical information enables you to quickly get an overall grasp of the situation, but in order to get the exact risks and contingencies required you will need to go to the tabular data which is presented when you click the Statistics button below the graphs.  The statistical data is presented on three separate pages which are accessed by clicking on the appropriate tabs along the bottom of the pages.

The graphical and statistical reports can be printed by clicking the Print button when the required report is shown on the screen.  In order to print out the cost data use the File | Print option on the menu on the Data Entry screen.

In order to exit from the PRA program you must first return to the Data Entry screen, and then click the Quit button.

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Adding / Editing Cost Information

Each line item in the estimate is stored as a separate record i.e. a separate line in the Data Entry "spreadsheet".   Although the Data Entry screen is displayed like a spreadsheet, you cannot type new information directly into it.  The data is entered through a common dialog box that is called up by clicking on the Add, Edit or Insert button.

New records are added at the bottom of the file i.e. they added as the next unused row on the Data Entry screen.   If you want to add information in the middle of the "spreadsheet" position the cursor on the line you want to move down, and then click the Insert button.

When the dialog box opens it will display the line number that has either been allocated to or read from the record, and the cursor will be in the Description edit box.  PRA will not accept a cost record without a description.  The description can be anything that can be typed in, but is limited to 30 characters.  Once 30 characters have been typed no more will be accepted and the program will beep every time an additional key is pressed.  When you have completed typing the description press Tab, or press Enter, or click on the Distribution radio button box.

A fundamental change was made in the model used for multi-field data entry forms when the world switched from DOS to Windows.  In DOS we used to press Enter every time we wanted to move to the next data field.  This would continue all the way through the form, until all fields had been filled.  In most Windows applications you must press Tab to move from one field to the next, or press Shift Tab to move to the previous field. Under Windows the Enter button is used to press the default button, which is usually the “OK” button.  The default button is the one with the darker outline.  As a compromise between these two models we have set up the Data Entry Dialog Box so that Enter or Tab can be used to move to the subsequent field, and the “OK” button only becomes the default button when the last field is being edited.

While the Distribution radio button box has focus, one of the distribution model names will have a dotted line around it.  You can select the cost probability distribution you want to use with the arrow keys, or by clicking on the name of the one you want, or by pressing the underlined letter.  Note that with radio buttons, as you select one, the previously selected one is automatically unselected.  After selecting the distribution you want, press Tab or Enter to move focus to the Likely Cost edit box.

The Likely Cost, Low Cost and High Cost (if required) are then entered in sequence.  Note that when using the triangular distribution the Low and High Costs are entered as absolute maximum and minimum numbers and the actual numbers will always be between them.  However when the Normal or LogNormal distributions are used the Low and High Costs are defined such that the actual costs will be between them 98% of the time, and will be beyond either of them 1% of the time.  This has to be done because the probability never reaches zero for these distributions.

If the concepts of Likely, Low and High Costs are new to you, it will be helpful to read through the Tutorial Section on "Using Statistical Distributions in Estimating" in the manual.   The Low and High Costs can be entered either as costs directly, or as a value relative to the Likely Cost.  After you have entered the Likely Cost and focus has shifted to the Low Cost entry field, you can either key in a cost or press Tab to move to the next field where you can enter a percentage.  For example, if the Low Cost is estimated to be 10% below the likely cost simply enter “10” in this field.  The program will calculate the Low Cost and insert it into the correct entry field.   On the other hand, if you had entered the Low Cost directly the program would have filled in the Percentage field automatically.  The High Cost (if required) is entered in the same way.

After you have entered all the required information click on the OK button, or simply press Enter.  The program will validate all your entries and will warn you if there are any invalid or inconsistent entries.  If it does give a warning, click on the OK button (or press Enter) and it will take you to the offending data item for you to edit it.

Once the information has been accepted, it will be entered into the spreadsheet on the Data Entry screen and the line added will be displayed.

At any stage in entering this information, but before the OK button is clicked, you can abort the procedure by clicking on the Cancel button.  Anything that you have entered into the dialog box will be discarded and you will be returned to the Data Entry screen.

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How to Register

If you have a credit card, you can get a registered copy of PRA within a few hours, or even minutes on a good day.  This rapid ordering procedure, as well as various other options, is described below.  A single user licence costs US$80-00 and a site licence costs US$250-00.

Thanks to the power of modern communications you can order your registered copy of PRA from any of our agents, irrespective of where you are, but you may prefer to use the agent closest to you.  You can also order directly from us, but we encourage you to rather order via an agent.  It may sound strange that we would want to install a middle man (who must be paid!), but it is for your protection and peace of mind that we recommend this.  The agents we have selected will not accept an order for a program that is not properly supported by its author.  We believe this protection for the user is important.  If you want to order directly from us, but are concerned about whether we are still around (this file could sit on the internet for years!)  please feel free to email us first.

The agents we use are :-

Public (software) Library, usually known as PsL, in the USA,

ShareIt! in Germany,

SW-Reg in Britain,

Shareware Australia in Australia and

Chempute Software in South Africa.

You can also order directly from Katmar Software, but only if you are paying by cheque or money order.

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Setting the Options

The options are set using the Options command on the main menu, which is displayed on the Data Entry screen.  The available options are discussed separately below.  The tutorial section in the manual has examples showing the effects of changing the options.

Number of Iterations

The number of iterations is important in achieving the required confidence level in the running of a Monte Carlo simulation.  The more iterations you can run, the more reliable are the conclusions you draw.  When you are setting up a model and you want to do a quick check, it is adequate to run only 500 to 1,000 iterations.  You will see that the graphs in this case are rather irregular.

Once you have the model set up and you want to produce a final report you should run as many iterations as time allows.  PRA is quite fast and you can set it up to run 40,000 iterations while you have a quick cup of tea.  The expected accuracy can be seen in the AVERAGES box on the MAIN STATISTICS screen.

The number of iterations must be set from the Data Entry screen.  You can either use the Alt N short cut, or use the Options | Iterations command on the main menu.  In PRA the minimum number of iterations is 100 and the maximum is 40,000.

Number of Classes

In statistical terms, classes are the bands within which random samples are accumulated.  In effect the number of classes is the number of bars on the histogram showing the overall cost distribution.  The number of classes needs to be set in conjunction with the number of iterations.  If you run only a small number of iterations, but you are using a large number of classes you will get a very irregular graph.  The smaller the number of classes the smoother the histogram will look.

The number of classes affects only the look of the histogram, and will not affect the statistical inferences that are drawn from the data.  PRA defaults to 50 classes, which generally gives a good output.  If your histogram looks irregular with 50 classes it probably means that you have not run sufficient iterations.

The number of classes must be set from the Data Entry screen.  You can either use the Alt L short cut, or use the Options | Classes command on the main menu.  The minimum number of classes is 10 and the maximum is 100.

Seeding the Random Number Generator

The theory of Monte Carlo simulation is based on random samples.  This is discussed in detail in the manual in Appendix A.  Since each cost sample is random, the overall cost distribution that is generated is also random.  Even if you use the same base cost data, every time you generate a new simulation you will get a slightly different answer.  To see this in action see the Step by Step examples in the Tutorial section of the manual.  This phenomenon of getting different answers is especially visible if the overall cost distribution is shown in histogram form and relatively few iterations have been run.

Fortunately this "problem" can be overcome.  Computers do not generate truly random numbers.  They use formulas that generate pseudo random numbers in fixed sequences.  If we enter the sequence at the same point every time we will get the same set of "random" numbers.  This entry point is known as the seed value.  PRA therefore has an option of setting the seed value to ensure repeatable simulations.  Each seed value will generate its own unique, but repeatable, simulation.

The seed value must be set from the Data Entry screen.  You can either use the Alt S short cut, or use the Options | Seed Value command on the main menu.

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Printing the Manual

The complete reference manual is distributed in electronic form together with the evaluation version of the Project Risk Analysis software.  The evaluation of the manual is as important as the testing of the program itself and we believe you are entitled to see exactly what it is that you are paying for before you part with any money.

By distributing the manual in software form we are also able to ensure that when you register we can simply send you a password and you will immediately have the full package.

The manual is in Microsoft Word (tm) version 6.0 form.  We have chosen this format because it is very widely used and if you do not have the full wordprocessor you can download the Word Viewer package from Microsoft's home page for free, and then print the manual.  Point your browser at www.microsoft.com and follow the pointers to the free downloads.

Load the file PRABOOK.DOC into Word and follow the formatting instructions that appear on the first page.  Remember to set the dithering options for your printer if you want the best possible quality.  The manual contains about 50 pages.

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Licence Agreement

The evaluation version of PRA will function for at least 30 days for you to evaluate its capabilities and its suitability for your needs.  During this time the program will remind you from time to time that it is an evaluation version, and the printouts will also have remarks that they were produced by an evaluation version.  When you pay for and register your copy of PRA these time limits and reminders will be eliminated.  Information on ordering a registered version.

The license for PRA is available in two forms, ie a single user version and a site licence.  You can install the site licence version onto as many computers as you like, provided they are all on the same site and belong to the same organization.  This licence of course also covers portable computers that are based at that site, but are used off the site from time to time.  A single user licence costs US$80-00 and a site licence costs US$250-00.

The license for PRA also includes free upgrades to any new version of the program that is released within 12 months of the date of purchase.  When you register PRA you will be given a software key (ie a password) that you enter together with your company name to convert the shareware version to the registered version.  This key will work with any version you download that was released within a year of your original purchase date.  Any upgrades after the first year will be charged as a new purchase, but will then include a year's free upgrades from that date again.  We have done this to avoid the complication of multiple pricing levels, and hopefully the free upgrades together with the full priced ones will average out at good value.

You are also entitled to free software support by email.

Over the years there has been much debate over what constitutes a fair licensing policy for shareware, particularly over the use of positive and negative "incentives".  We have put an enormous amount of thought into the "incentives" that we have built into this program.  We believe that the user should be able to see and test every feature of the program, including the manual, before being asked to part with any money.  There should be absolutely no doubt in the user's mind as to whether the program is suitable or not.  With this in mind, we have made this program fully functional, but have programmed a time limit into it and we have put watermarks on some of the printouts.  We hope that you find this an acceptable compromise and would appreciate your comments on what you believe is a fair system for proper evaluation.

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Obtaining Support

If you have any problems that you cannot solve by reading the on-line help or the manual, you are welcome to contact us.  Please note that we cannot undertake to teach you basic statistics or risk analysis, but where they impact on your usage of the program we will certainly try to help.

When describing the problem please be as detailed as possible.  If you have operational problems include details of your hardware, operating system and so on.

Contact us by email at:

katmar@dbn.lia.net

Or write to us at :

Katmar Software

PO Box 654

Westville 3630

South Africa.

Or visit our WWW homepage at:

http://users.lia.net/katmar/

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Introduction to PRA

The purpose of this program is to enable capital risks on projects to be evaluated, and for the financial contingencies required to cover those risks to be calculated in a rational and defendable manner.  Too often the project contingency is calculated as a "gut feel" amount, without much consideration for the real risks involved.  The procedure followed in PRA encourages disciplined estimating, and will calculate the required contingency according to the proven statistical method known as Monte Carlo Simulation.

Although PRA uses sophisticated statistical techniques, it has been written for project professionals who are more at home with estimating and costing than with statistics.  All the statistical models and distributions required have been specifically set up for contingency analysis and no knowledge of statistics is required.  A tutorial on using statistical distributions in capital cost estimating is included in the manual.  For those who are interested in the underlying methods used to calculate the risks and required contingencies, they are described in the manaul in Appendix A.

The results calculated by PRA can be displayed in easy-to-read graphical formats that quickly and effectively give the estimator an overall appreciation of the risks. These graphs are also ideal as support documentation for presentations to senior management in the justification of requests for contingency funds.   The results are also available in detailed tabular format.

In the process of calculating the required contingency, PRA will also pick out and highlight the areas that are sensitive to risk.  By applying the Pareto 80/20 Principle you can then concentrate on the areas where the potential impacts are greatest.

Those who have used other risk analysis programs based on range estimating will be able to get going quickly by reading through the Overview of Risk Analysis Process.  Newcomers to risk analysis, and to Monte Carlo Simulation in particular, are recommended to work through the Tutorials in the manual.  This will introduce the risk analysis techniques in general, as well as their application to contingency analysis.  Working through the tutorials will also take you step by step through the details of how to use this program.

This program is distributed as shareware.  It is not free software.  The evaluation version is fully functional and is designed for you to be able to thoroughly evaluate the program.  The evaluation copy will operate for at least 30 days.  At the end of that time (or preferably during that time!) you can purchase the registered version which eliminates the shareware reminders and the time limit.  Thanks to the power of the Internet you can receive the registered version within minutes of deciding to purchase it. Full details on the licence conditions and ordering procedures are included.  Those of you new to shareware may want to read a detailed description of the shareware distribution system.

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The Shareware System

Although shareware is often thought of as a type of software, it is actually a form of software distribution.  This section gives details on the shareware system and how it works.

The shareware distribution system developed in the environment of free enterprise and innovation that characterised the PC industry in the early 1980's.  It has continued to grow and today there is a huge variety of high quality software available at very reasonable prices.  Shareware in fact covers a wider range of subjects than commercial software.  Some of the areas that  are particularly well represented are databases, word processors, spreadsheets, CAD, games, utilities, menuing systems, education, accounting and programming support.

A support industry that included magazines, disk distributors and bulletin board systems grew up around the shareware system.  These have now been largely supplanted by the Internet, the online services such as CompuServe and AOL, and the CD-ROM distributors.  Today you can search amongst 10's of thousands of programmes on the Internet and download a trial copy in a matter of minutes.

If you are new to shareware you may like to have a look at some of the software available from the Internet archives.   There is no charge for downloading trial copies and only if you like the software, and decide to continue using it, do you pay the author.

Some of the better archives on the Internet are :-

Public (software) Library.  aka PsL.  This is one of the original shareware businesses and one of the very few that has kept up with the evolution of the shareware system.  Actually that is an unfair statement.  PsL, and its owner Nelson Ford, have probably done more than any other organization to set the course of shareware and keep it abreast of the rest of the computer world.  The ultimate in professional shareware.  Here you can search, download and pay for your shareware.  They also publish excellent compilation CD-ROMs.  What more can I say?  Try them first.

http://www.pslweb.com/

Ziff-Davis ZD-NET.  This is a general shareware / freeware / demoware site that can be browsed or searched.

http://www.hotfiles.com/

Albert's Ambry.  This is one of a new category of sites where you can search for software, download an evaluation copy and then pay for and download the registered version if you decide to buy.

http://www.alberts.com/

Download. Another general shareware / freeware / demoware site that can be browsed or searched.

http://www.download.com/

Winsite.  Specialising in Windows shareware. (Does anyone remember an operating system called DOS?  What about CP/M ??)

http://www.winsite.com/

Garbo.   Another of the classic shareware organisations.  Located at the Business School of the University of Uwasa in Finland and run by the inimitable Prof Timo Salmi.  You won't find any games here (OK - maybe a few educational ones), this is serious stuff.  If you are looking for business, maths and stats utilities or Pascal programming tips (Timo's speciality) this is the place to look.

http://garbo.uwasa.fi/

SimTel.    Another of the classics.  This one is mirrored at many sites around the world and there is a good chance that there will be a mirror just around the corner from you.

http://www.simtel.net/simtel.net/

ASME.   A specialist engineering archive is maintained by the American Society of Mechanical Engineers.  Very well organised into categories, with lists of file descriptions that can be downloaded and read off-line.  It should be compulsory for all engineers to bookmark this page.

http://www.asme.mecheng.org/

ProFutura Professional.    Finally, a site that is not a shareware site per se, but since you are reading this you will probably be interested in the Project Management resources available here.

http://www.dbn.lia.net/users/johannh/index.htm

The basic concept of shareware is that the author retains the copyright and all other commercial rights to the software and documentation, while allowing, and indeed encouraging, wide copying and distribution of the package.

There are a few restrictions that authors place on distribution.  All copies must be full copies of the entire package with no modifications.  Copies may not be sold for more than the cost of the disk, the labour of copying and a reasonable profit.  When selling copies the distributor must state that the software is free for evaluation purposes only and payment must be made to the author if continued use is made of the programme.

There are many advantages in shareware to users and authors.  The cost to the user is low because no money is wasted on advertising and fancy packaging that add no real value to the software.  The biggest advantage to the user is that it is a true "try-before-you-buy" system.  The software can be fully evaluated on the user's hardware and in his/her own environment before payment is  made.  Shareware therefore has the ultimate money-back guarantee -- if you don't use the product, you don't pay for it.

The user is also closer to the author and is able to write directly to him for help and advice.  Shareware authors generally encourage users to send in "wish-lists" of desired features, and are quite responsive to those requests.  In effect the users become the author's market research department.

There are, of course, also advantages to the authors who use shareware to distribute their products.  The cost of launching a new product via shareware is much less than via normal commercial channels.  This has allowed smaller software houses to market innovative and highly specialised software that would otherwise simply not be profitable.  Running costs are also lower as there are almost no marketing or advertising costs.

The success of the shareware system has prompted many of the commercial software companies to use the same distribution channels for trial versions and demo versions of their software.  This has led to a blurring of the distinction between shareware and commercial software.

This blurring has also been caused by the fact that there are various "degrees" and definitions of shareware.  In its purest form, shareware software is fully functional and can be used for as long as it takes the user to decide to pay for it.  Unfortunately very few users do ever pay for it under these circumstances. (But some do - I have had a fair number of registrations for a DOS steam tables program called WASP which was pure shareware.)  So authors have worked out a variety of ways to "encourage" users to pay.  Some authors offer extra features or printed manuals with their registered versions.  Some "shareware" is nothing more than a demonstration.  Some authors program time limits into the software to enforce the 30 day trial period.  Another system widely used is to put watermarks on printed reports.  Some authors disable the most useful functions in the evaluation versions.  A common system is to add "nag screens" that pop up randomly to remind the user to pay.

All in all, these various schemes have resulted in confusion over what shareware really is.  A wide variety of names have been coined to describe the different systems eg DemoWare, NagWare, TrialWare, and even BeWare, but mostly they all go under the generic title of shareware.

I have put an enormous amount of thought into the "incentives" I have built into this program.  I believe that the user should be able to see and test every feature of the program, including the manual, before being asked to part with any money.  There should be absolutely no doubt in the user's mind as to whether the program is suitable or not.  With this in mind, I have made the evaluation version of this program fully functional, but I have programmed a time limit into it and I have put watermarks on some of the printouts.   I hope that you find this an acceptable compromise and I would appreciate your comments on what you believe is a fair system.

Registration agents are another aspect of shareware that work to the user's advantage.  These organizations take registrations on behalf of the shareware authors.  By registering via an agent the user is assured that the shareware author is still around and still supports his software.  The agent would stop taking registrations as soon as anyone complained that they had not received support from that author.  Let's face it, it takes quite an act of faith to put a check into the mail and send it to someone on the other side of the world who may or may not fulfil his side of the deal.  This risk is removed by registering via a reputable agent.

The agents do not charge the user any commission; their fees come off the author's payment.  You can contact most agents via phone, fax, email or WWW and pay with your credit card.  A recent (1996) development in this system is that some agents will, upon payment,  immediately give you a software key to convert your evaluation copy to a registered copy, or will allow you to download the registered version.  With this system you can have the full version on your computer within minutes of deciding to purchase.

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Deleting Cost Information

Any record within the spreadsheet can be deleted.  On the Data Entry screen highlight any cell within the row that you want to delete and then click on the Delete button, or press Alt D (or even just press D).

Before the data is actually deleted the program will ask you to confirm that you do want to delete it.  Once it is deleted there is no way to get it back, other than by re-entering it.

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Project Heading

You can also save descriptive information specifying the project name, project number, client name, estimate reference and the name of the estimator.  This information is added or edited by using the File | Project Heading command on the main menu.  Once this information has been added it will be automatically saved whenever the cost data is saved.

This information will be included on all printed reports you generate with PRA.

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Saving and Loading Data

Saving Data

Once you have entered the data for a new project you will want to save it for later use.  This is done with the File | Save or the File | Save As commands on the main menu which is displayed on the Data Entry screen.  A short cut for the File | Save command is to press F2.

The first time you use File | Save on new data the program will open a dialog box asking you to specify the drive, directory and name for the file.  The drive and directory are specified as usual by browsing with the central portion of the dialog box.  The file name must be typed in the edit box on the top left of the dialog box.  The file name can be any legal 8 character combination.  You do not have to type the extension; PRA will automatically add the required .RSK extension for you.

Please note that if the current data was loaded from a disk file, or if you have already saved the data, the File | Save (or F2) command immediately saves your data using the same filename that was used before.  The old file on the disk is over written without asking you to confirm the filename, and the old file cannot be retrieved.  If you want to save the data in a different file use the File | Save As command.

If you have existing data that you want to modify and save under a different name, or if you want to save a copy of your file to a different directory, use the File | Save As command.  This will give you a chance to specify the new drive, directory or filename before the file is saved to disk.

Loading Data

Cost information that you have previously entered and saved, can be read back from disk into the program.  To do this, use the File | Open command on the main menu which is displayed on the Data Entry screen.  The menu system can be by-passed completely by simply pressing F3 from the Data Entry screen.

When you open a file it will over-write anything that is currently in memory.  If you try to open a file while you have unsaved information in the spreadsheet, the program will warn you before it over-writes the existing information.

After you have invoked the File | Open command a standard Windows dialog box will be opened.  The dialog box will default to the current directory and will display all the Project Risk Analysis data files it finds there.  (PRA data files have an .RSK file extension.)  If you want to load a file from a different directory or drive use the middle section of the dialog box to browse to the directory you want.  Once you have the correct directory displayed you can scroll up and down with the window on the left of the dialog box until you find the file you want.  When you have located the required file, click on it and then click on the OK button, or simply double click on the name of the file.

The file will then be loaded and displayed in the spreadsheet.  The project heading information is also loaded, but is not immediately displayed.  Use File | Project Heading to view or edit the heading.

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Importing ASCII Spreadsheet Files

As most estimates are assembled in a spreadsheet program, PRA has the ability to read data files exported from spreadsheets.  The file generated by the spreadsheet has to be in a specific format for PRA to be able to read it.

When you import a file it will over-write anything that is currently in memory.  If you try to import a file while you have unsaved information in the spreadsheet, the program will warn you before it over-writes the existing information.

After you have invoked the File | Import ASCII command a dialog box will be opened.  The dialog box will default to the current directory and will display all the spreadsheet print files it finds there.  (Spreadsheet print files have a .PRN file extension.)  If you want to load a file from a different directory or drive use the middle section of the dialog box to browse to the directory you want.  Once you have the correct directory displayed you can scroll up and down with the window on the left of the dialog box until you find the file you want.  When you have located the required file, click on it and then click on the OK button, or simply double click on the name of the file.

The file will then be loaded and displayed in the spreadsheet.  If any errors were made in setting up the file that was exported from the spreadsheet, PRA will display a message explaining the error and advising you which line of the file contains the error.  The errors can either be formatting errors or logical errors.  Formatting errors include fields that do not include necessary data and  "numbers"  that cannot be interpreted (eg 123We% would not be recognised as a numerical value).  Logical errors include having Low Costs higher than High Costs and so on.

No project heading information is automatically loaded.  This heading must be created separately.

Help file generated by HelpWriter for Delphi.


Exporting Data from Spreadsheets

The estimate summary must be set up in your spreadsheet in a specific format so that PRA can read it.  This summary can be anywhere in your spreadsheet and can include formulas that pick up values or sub-totals from somewhere else in the spreadsheet.  The summary must be in the form of 5 columns and as many rows as you have estimate categories.  There must not be any blank columns or rows within the summary block, and every cell must have an entry.

The columns must appear in the left-to-right order shown below, and with the column widths shown.  The information must all be right justified within the cells and the cost data must be formatted with zero decimal places.

Column 1	Description	35 characters

Column 2	Most Likely Cost	15 characters

Column 3	Lowest Cost	15 characters

Column 4	Highest Cost	15 characters

Column 5	Distribution	10 characters

The only allowable entries in the Distribution field are "Tri", "Nor" and "Log" (but without the quotes) which represent the Triangular, Normal and LogNormal distributions respectively.

When you export the data it must be to a Text or ASCII file with the extension ".PRN"  e.g. if you want to name your estimate "BIGPLANT" you should name the exported file "BIGPLANT.PRN".

The information that you export MUST contain only the 5 columns shown above and must exclude all headings and other labels.

It is most common in an estimate spreadsheet to work only with the Most Likely Cost numbers.  Your column of Most Likely Costs will therefore be able to pick up the correct cost or sub-total of costs from somewhere in the spreadsheet.  You can then enter the Lowest and Highest Costs directly into the block for export, or you can enter a formula.  For example the Lowest Cost may be estimated to be 80% of the Most Likely Cost.  Here you would enter a formula that multiplied the MLC by 0.8.

The procedures below are not difficult, but they have to be followed exactly.  If the file you export gives you problems when you try to read it into PRA you should check the exported file using a pure ASCII editor such as Window Notepad.  Do not use Write, WordPad or a word processor.  Load the file and check that it is in the format specified above.

Export Instructions for Quattro Pro v4.0 and v5.0

Arrange your data into the 5 columns as described in the general section above and set the column widths correctly (i.e. 35, 15, 15, 15, 10).  To set a column width select a cell anywhere within the column and press Ctrl W.

Ensure that all the cells are right justified using Style, Alignment, Right for the entire block.  Set the number of decimal places to zero by using Style, Numeric Format, Fixed, 0 for the block of cost data.

From the menu use Print, Block and select the entire range, excluding headings etc.

Select Print, Destination, Text File and enter the file name as "filename.PRN" where "filename" is the name of your file.  If this file already exists you will be asked if you want Cancel or Replace it.  Note that you are only specifying the file name at this stage and nothing is written to the file yet.

Using Print, Layout set Break Pages to No, and set the margins to Left 0, Top 0 and Right 100.

Select Adjust Printer, Align and then use Spreadsheet Print to actually send the data to the disk file.

Ensure that you re-select your printer under the Print, Destination option when you want to print normally again.

Export Instructions for Quattro Pro v6.0

In order to print to a file under version 6.0 it is necessary to change to the alternative menu system.  To do this right click the title bar to display the Application Object Inspector.  On the Macro page click the drop down arrow next to the Slash Key edit box and then select "Quattro Pro - DOS".  Click OK to close the dialog box.  (Remember to undo this when you have finished exporting your data.)

Arrange your data into the 5 columns as described in the general section above and set the column widths correctly (i.e. 35, 15, 15, 15, 10).  To set a column width select a cell anywhere within the column and then right click it.  From the pop-up menu select Block Properties... (at the top of the menu) and then Column Width.

Ensure that all the cells are right justified by selecting the whole block, right clicking on the selected block, and using Block Properties, Alignment, Right, OK.  Set the number of decimal places to zero for the block of cost data by selecting the block and right clicking it, and using Block Properties, Numeric Format, Fixed, 0, OK.

Press "/" to call up the Quattro Pro - DOS menu.  From the menu use Print, Block and select the entire range, excluding headings etc.

Select Print, Destination, Text File and enter the file name as "filename.PRN" where "filename" is the name of your file.  If this file already exists you will be asked if you want Cancel or Replace it.  Note that you are only specifying the file name at this stage and nothing is written to the file yet.

Using Print, Layout set Break Pages to No, set Dimensions to Lines/Characters ,and set the Margins to Left 0, Top 0 and Right 100.  Click on Quit to return to the Print Menu.

Select Adjust Printer, Align and then use Spreadsheet Print to actually send the data to the disk file.

Ensure that you re-select your printer under the Print, Destination option when you want to print normally again.

Export Instructions for Lotus 1-2-3 v2.4

Arrange your data into the 5 columns as described in the general section above and set the column widths correctly (i.e. 35, 15, 15, 15, 10).  To set the column widths use /, Worksheet, Column, Column-Range, Set-Width, specify the range and enter the width in characters.

Ensure that all the cells are right justified using /, Range, Label, Right for the entire block.  Set the number of decimal places to zero by using /, Range, Format, Fixed, 0 for the block of cost data.

To select the block to be printed use /, Print, File  and enter the file name as "filename.PRN" where "filename" is the name of your file.  If this file already exists you will be asked if you want Cancel or Replace it.  Note that you are only specifying the file name at this stage and nothing is written to the file yet.

The Print Settings dialog box will be shown.  Set the Range to include the estimate data, but exclude headings etc.  Use Options, Margins to set the Left and Top margins to zero and the Right margin to 100.  Use Options, Other, Unformatted to suppress all page breaks.

Select Align, Go to actually send the data to the disk file.

Ensure that you re-select your printer using /, Print, Printer when you want to print normally again.

Export Instructions for Excel v7.0

Arrange your data into the 5 columns as described in the general section above.  It is not necessary to set the column widths correctly at this stage.  Highlight the entire block to be exported (excluding any headings etc) and then select Edit, Copy from the menu.

Select a blank page by clicking on an unused tab along the bottom.  Put the cursor in cell A1 on the blank page and press Enter.  This will copy the required information onto the new page. Now set the column widths to the values specified above (i.e. 35, 15, 15, 15, 10). To set the column widths use Format, Column, Width and enter the width in characters.

Ensure that all the cells are right justified by highlighting the whole block and using Format, Cells, Alignment, Right, OK.  Highlight the cost data and then from the menu select Format, Cells, Number.    Click on Number and set the number of decimals to 0.  Ensure that the "Use 1000 separator" check-box is NOT selected.

From the main menu select File, Save As.  At the bottom of the dialog box, next to "Save as type" select "Formatted Text (Space delimited)(*.prn)".  Select a folder (directory) using the "Save In" combo box at the top of the “Save As” dialog box.  Key in the file name as "filename.PRN" where "filename" is the name of your file.

When you click on Save you will get the warning "Selected file type will save only the active sheet".  Click on OK - we only want to save the one sheet to export the data, but be sure to save your whole spreadsheet as a .XLS file as well.

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Analyzing the Cost Information

Once you have entered or loaded your cost data and set the options you want, you can generate the overall cost distribution that will enable you to analyze the project costs and calculate the risks. The analysis procedure is started by clicking the Analyze button in the bottom left corner of the Data Entry screen, or by pressing Alt Z.   (Note that the Analyze button is not visible until you have entered some cost data.)

The analysis will take anything from a few seconds to several minutes, depending on the amount of data you have entered, the number of iterations you have requested, and the speed of your computer.  A progress bar will show you how far the calculation has proceeded.  The analysis is done in two passes.  In the first pass the simulations are generated and in the second they are analyzed.

When the simulation has been completed the histogram will automatically be displayed.

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Interpreting the Graphs

After you have pressed the Analyze button, PRA will display the results of the simulated total project costs in histogram form.  The histogram divides the cost range between the highest and lowest costs generated into as many sub-ranges as you have specified (ie classes), and then groups the individual costs into the sub-ranges.  The height of each bar on the histogram indicates the relative number of times (frequency) the total cost of the project was found to be in that sub-range.

You can therefore see at a glance what the final project cost is most likely to be, and what the upper and lower limits are.  This screen also shows a brief summary of the basic statistics.

In addition to the histogram view, you can show the same overall cost distribution in "S"-Curve format by clicking the Swap Graphs button, or by pressing Alt G (or even just pressing G).

Whereas the histogram shows the probability of the costs being within each sub-range, the "S"-Curve shows the probability of the cost being less than or equal to any particular project cost.  This is termed the Cumulative Probability as it is the sum of all the probabilities up to the particular cost you are looking at.

The form of the "S"-Curve used here shows the cumulative probability of the project cost being less than the indicated cost.  It therefore runs from zero percent probability at the Lowest Cost to 100% probability at the Highest Cost.  Sometimes it is required in the opposite form i.e. what is the probability of the project being overspent?  In this form the "S"-Curve would run from 100% probability at the Lowest Cost down to zero at the Highest Cost.  The probabilities can be converted from the one form to the other by simply subtracting from 100%.  Eg if the probability of being underspent at a certain project cost is 80% then the probability of being overspent is 20%.

In general the histogram is more useful for getting a feeling for the mean cost and the "S"-Curve is more useful for seeing what happens near the upper and lower limits.  However it is important to realise that the two curves are just different ways of showing the same information and any inferences that can be drawn from the one are also reflected in the other.

The buttons in the bottom right corner of the screen allow you to return to the Data Entry screen, to Print the graph, to go to the detailed Statistics Report or to get online Help.  Pressing the Swap Graphs button again will take you back to the histogram format.

The Print button will send the currently displayed graph format to the printer.  The printed report will also include the Project Heading and a table of basic statistics.

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Statistical Information

Although the graphical displays give a very good overall impression and interpretation of the situation, it is not possible to read exact values off the curves for calculating the risks and contingencies accurately.  This information is more easily read in tabular form.  The statistical tables can be accessed from the graphical screens by clicking the Statistics button or by pressing Alt S (or just S).

The statistical information is shown on three separate pages, which are discussed below.  The three pages are displayed in the form of a tabbed notebook;  simply click on the tabs to "flip" the pages.

Main Statistics

The first statistical screen is the Main Statistics screen.  This shows the confidence levels usually used for selecting contingencies, together with the actual contingencies required to achieve those confidence levels.  If you want to use a confidence level that is not shown on this screen you can get a more detailed output by clicking the Cumulative Probabilities tab.

The Main Statistics screen also shows the Mean and Median for the overall cost distribution.   A calculation is also done to show how close the mean for the simulation results is to the true mean at the 99% confidence level.  This can be used to decide whether sufficient iterations have been run.  The more iterations you run, the closer the calculated mean will be to the true mean.

The basic statistics are also displayed on this screen.  They include the kurtosis and the skewness for the overall cost distribution.  The kurtosis gives an indication of the "peakedness" or "flatness" of the distribution.  The Normal distribution has a kurtosis of 3.0.  A kurtosis below 3 indicates a flatter than Normal curve, and above 3 indicates a more peaked curve.

The skewness indicates how asymmetrical the "tails" of the distribution are, relative to the mean.  A skewness of zero indicates a symmetrical distribution.  A positive skewness indicates that the tail extending towards the higher costs is more pronounced than that towards the lower costs.  Similarly a negative skewness indicates that the tail towards the lower costs is more pronounced.  The absolute value of the skewness indicates the degree of asymmetry.

The information on this page can be printed out by clicking the Print button or by pressing Alt P (or even just P).

Sensitivity Analysis

To see the Sensitivity Analysis click on the tab near the bottom, or press Alt S.

The Sensitivity Analysis ranks each cost according to the difference between the Expected Cost and the Most Likely Cost.  In other words it ranks them according to the probability of being overspent.  This is a useful indicator of where attention needs to be concentrated to avoid the project going overspent.   Although Monte Carlo simulation assumes that costs are independent of each other, in the real world we know that a bit of extra management effort can influence the costs.

The information on this page can be printed out by clicking the Print button or by pressing Alt P (or even just P).

Cumulative Probabilities

To see the Cumulative Probabilities click on the tab near the bottom, or press Alt C.

The Cumulative Probabilities screen shows a table of probabilities and project costs where the probabilities given indicate the likelihood of the total project cost being less than or equal to the tabled cost.  This table can be shown in 1% or 5% increments.  The size of the increment is set by clicking on the size required, or by pressing 1 or 5 on the keyboard.

This table is useful when you want to use a confidence level other than one of those included on the Main Statistics page.  You can also use it to work backwards, ie to determine what the probability of overrunning a given total is.  With limited accuracy you can use it to interpolate between given points, but this would be starting to split hairs and would not really be giving any valuable information.

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Contingency Determination

Once you have entered all you data and run the analysis, you will want to know what contingency you need to achieve a certain level of confidence of completing the project in within budget.

This is can be estimated by looking at the cumulative probabilities curve and reading off the cost for the confidence level you desire.  For example, if you want to be 95% certain of being within budget, read off the cost corresponding to 95% to determine the overall project cost.  You can subtract the current total estimate from this to determine how much contingency you need.  The total estimate is usually determined by simply adding the estimated most likely costs for the individual items.

It is not easy to read the costs exactly from the curves.  Accurate readings are most easily achieved by reading the tabular reports.  The contingencies corresponding to the most frequently used confidence levels are displayed on the Main Statistics output screen.  If the confidence level you want is not shown on this screen use the Cumulative Statistics screen to get the exact percentage you want.

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Ordering directly from Katmar Software

Use this form (by selecting File | Print Topic) if you want to order directly from Katmar Software.  Please note that you cannot send credit card orders directly to us, you must use one of our agents.  You must pay by check (cheque) or money order if you order directly from us.

Send your order to :   Katmar Software,  PO Box 654,   Westville,   3630,   South Africa

Date : ________________ 	Order Number : _____________

Ordered By :-

Name : 	_______________________________________________

Job Title :	_______________________________________________

Department :	_______________________________________________

Company : 	_______________________________________________

Email address:	_______________________________________________

Supply :-   ( please delete as appropriate )  (Prices inclusive of P&P)

        1 copy of Project Risk Analysis (single user licence) at US$80-00

        1 copy of Project Risk Analysis (multi-user site licence) at US$250-00

                                          SUM Enclosed : US$  __________

Enclose a cheque or money order for the above amount. No purchase orders or COD's will be accepted.  If ordered from within the South African monetary area payment may be made in Rands at the current exchange rate.

Delivery Method

Our standard delivery method is to send the password by email.  If you do not have email you must supply either a physical mail address or a fax address.  Please tick one of the methods below:-

By email :	___

By fax :	___

By snail mail :	___

 Additional Information

(This information is optional unless you have requested a delivery method that requires it)

Address : 	_______________________________________________

_______________________________________________

Town : 	_______________________________________________

State : 	_______________________________________________

Postal / ZIP Code :	_________________________________________

Country : 	_______________________________________________

Fax :	_______________________________________________

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Ordering from Public (software) Library

PsL are very flexible in that you can order via the World Wide Web, by toll-free phone, by normal phone, by fax, by email, or by physical mail.  All orders are charged against your credit card.  If you order by phone or via the WWW, PsL will immediately give you a temporary software key (password) that will convert your shareware evaluation version to a registered version.  You should use the Registration | Temporary function on the main menu to enter your company name and software key to disable the shareware time limit and reminders.   PsL will advise us of your registration and we will send you your permanent key.  This may take a few days, but usually occurs within 48 hours.  Please give PsL your email or fax address so that we can get this key to you as quickly as possible.

PsL produces a monthly CD-ROM containing thousands of shareware programs for home and business.  The CD-ROM normally sells for US$29.95 plus shipping.  Because this CD-ROM is so popular and widely distributed, many of the top shareware authors use it as a primary route for distributing their latest programs.  When ordering Project Risk Analysis from PsL you can get the latest version for only US$6.00 plus shipping, still with the full money back satisfaction guarantee.   Shipping is US$4.00 in continental USA and US$8.00 outside continental USA.  Please discuss this with the order clerk when you phone in your order for PRA, or tick the appropriate box on the Fax or WWW order form.

Use the PsL fax order form if you are ordering by mail or fax, or use it as a checklist to establish the information they will ask you for if you are going to order by phone, email or WWW.

Please note that PsL only take orders on our behalf.  The PsL addresses given below are for orders only. They cannot answer technical queries or give any other support.  All support queries and any other correspondence must be directed to us at Katmar Software.

The PsL product code for Project Risk Analysis is #15420.

You can order with MC, Visa, AmEx, or Discover from Public (software) Library using the following methods :-

Online via the WWW:  Go to our Web site at http://users.lia.net/katmar/ and click on the link to Project Risk Analysis and then on the link to Online Ordering.  Then click on the link to PsL and fill in the form that appears.  As soon as your credit card details have been verified you will receive your temporary password from PsL. If you have problems getting through to our web site you can go directly to PsL at www.pslweb.com and search by program name or by using the product code of 15420.

By Fax: Please use the Fax order form and send it to 713 524 6398.  Please type or block print very plainly.  The order form is also included in the .ZIP file as the file PSLFAX.TXT  This is a plain ASCII file that you can load into your wordprocessor and fill in electronically if you do not have a typewriter. (Does anyone still have typewriters?!?)

By Email: Use the Fax order form to see what information you need to send.  Send your email message to 15420@pslweb.com

By Snail Mail: Please use the Fax order form and send it to PsL at PO Box 35705,   Houston, TX 77235-5705, United States of America.

By Phone: Please use the Fax order form as a check list for the information you will have to provide when you phone your order through.  PsL’s operators are available from 8:00am to 6:00pm (ie 18h00) CST Monday to Friday at 800-242 4775 Ext. 15420 from within the USA or 713-524-6394 Ext. 15420  from other countries.

THE ABOVE NUMBERS ARE FOR ORDERS ONLY

Any questions on the status of the shipment of the order, refunds, registration options, product details, technical support, non-credit card orders etc must be directed to Katmar Software, PO Box 654, Westville 3630, South Africa.  (email address katmar@dbn.lia.net).  PsL will notify us by email the day of your order and we will email or fax the permanent software key directly to you.

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PsL Fax Order Form

Use this form (by selecting File | Print Topic) only if you are ordering by FAX or mail from Public (software) Library.  DO NOT SEND CREDIT CARD ORDERS DIRECTLY TO KATMAR SOFTWARE.  Send the completed form to :-

Public (software) Library	**NOTE**  This address is for

PO Box 35705	ORDERS ONLY. Any questions on

Houston	the status of the shipment of

TX 77235-5705	the order, refunds,

United States of America	registration options, product

details, technical support etc

FAX  713-524-6398	must be directed to Katmar

Software's South African address.

Registration for    :	Project Risk Analysis by Katmar Software (product code #15420)

                                                       	 __

Licence type    :	Single User Licence US$ 80-00	|__|	(tick

Site Licence US$ 250-00	|__|	 as

PsL CD-ROM :	In continental USA US$ 10-00	|__|	 appropriate)

Outside continental USA US$14-00	|__|

Registration Details

Your Name 	: ________________________________________________

Your Company Name 	: ________________________________________________

Your Address 	: ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

Your Email Address	: ________________________________________________

Your Fax Number	: ________________________________________________

Credit Card Details

Name as on Card	: ________________________________________________

Billing Address	: ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

Credit Card type 	:   MC / Visa / AmEx / Discover    (circle one)

Credit Card Number	: ________________________________________________

Expiration Date	: ___________________________ ( mm/yy )

Total Amount in US$ 	: ___________________________ (see cost above)

Signature	: ___________________________   Date : ______________

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Ordering from ShareIt! in Germany

ShareIt! are based in Germany.  However, you can order from them from anywhere in Europe and indeed from anywhere in the world.  ShareIt! also have a toll-free number in the USA.

You can order from ShareIt! via the World Wide Web, by phone, by fax, by email, or by physical mail.  Orders can be charged against your credit card or paid for by money order, cash or Eurocheques (only in Europe).  If you order by phone or via the WWW, ShareIt! will email you a temporary software key (password) that will convert your shareware evaluation version to a registered version.  This email will reach you with 24 hours of registering.  You should use the Registration | Temporary function on the main menu to enter your company name and software key to disable the shareware time limit and reminders.   ShareIt! will advise us of your registration and we will send you your permanent key.  This may take a few days, but usually occurs within 48 hours.  Please give ShareIt! your email or fax address so that we can get this key to you as quickly as possible.

Use the Share-It fax order form if you are ordering by mail or fax, or use it as a checklist to establish the information they will ask you for if you are going to order by phone, email or WWW.

Please note that ShareIt! only take orders on our behalf.  The ShareIt! addresses given below are for orders only. They cannot answer technical queries or give any other support.  All support queries and any other correspondence must be directed to us at Katmar Software.

The ShareIt! product code for Project Risk Analysis is 101290 for the single user version and 101291 for the site licence version.

You can order with Mastercard/Eurocard, Visa, American Express, or Diners Card from  ShareIt!  using any of the following methods, or with cash, money order or Eurocheque (from within Europe only) by mail :-

Online via the WWW:  Go to our Web site at http://users.lia.net/katmar/ and click on the link to Project Risk Analysis and then on the link to Online Ordering.  Then click on the link to ShareIt! and fill in the form that appears.  As soon as your credit card details have been verified you will receive your temporary password from them.  If you have problems getting through to our web site you can go directly to ShareIt!  at www.shareit.com and search by program name or by using the product code of 101290.

By Fax: Please use the Fax order form and send it to +49 221 240 7278 (Germany).  Please type or block print very plainly.  The order form is also included in the .ZIP file as the file SHAREIT.TXT  This is a plain ASCII file that you can load into your word processor and fill in electronically if you do not have a typewriter. (Does anyone still have typewriters?!?)

By Email: Use the Fax order form to see what information you need to send.  Please ensure that you include the Product Code 101290 for a single user licence or 101291 for a site licence.   Send your email message to register@shareit.com

By Snail Mail: Please use the Fax order form and send it to :-

ShareIt!

Habsburgerring 3

D-50674  Koeln

Germany

By Phone: Please use the Fax order form as a check list for the information you will have to provide when you phone your order through.  Share-it’s operators are available on +49 221 240 7279 (Germany),  or on 1-800 903 4152 (USA).

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ShareIt! Fax Order Form

Use this form (by selecting File | Print Topic) only if you are ordering by FAX or mail from ShareIt!.  DO NOT SEND CREDIT CARD ORDERS DIRECTLY TO KATMAR SOFTWARE.  Send the completed form to :-

**NOTE**  This address is for

ShareIt!	ORDERS ONLY. Any questions on

Habsburgerring 3	the status of the shipment of

D-50674  Koeln	the order, refunds,

Germany	registration options, product

details, technical support etc

FAX  +49-221 240 7278	must be directed to Katmar

Software's South African address.

Registration for    :	Project Risk Analysis by Katmar Software

(product code 101290/1)

                                                       	 __

Licence type    :	Single User Licence US$ 80-00	|__|	(tick one)

Site Licence US$ 250-00	|__|

Registration Details

Your Name 	: ________________________________________________

Your Company Name 	: ________________________________________________

Your Address 	: ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

Your Email Address	: ________________________________________________

Your Fax Number	: ________________________________________________

Credit Card Details

Name as on Card	: ________________________________________________

Billing Address	: ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

Credit Card type 	: Mastercard/Eurocard / Visa / AmEx / Diners Club  (circle one)

Credit Card Number	: ________________________________________________

Expiration Date	: ___________________________ ( mm/yy )

Total Amount in US$ 	: ___________________________ (see cost above)

Signature	: ___________________________   Date : ______________

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Ordering from SW-Reg in Britain

Sw-Reg are based in Britain, but can take orders from anywhere in the world.  They take credit card orders using a secure order form on the WWW.   All orders to SW-Reg are charged in British Pounds Sterling.

You can order from them using your credit card (Visa or Mastercard only) by visiting our homepage at http://users.lia.net/katmar/ and clicking on the link to Project Risk Analysis.  Then click on Online Ordering.  Then click on the link to Sw-Reg and fill in the form that appears.  Note that you must use the Product ID 201688 for a single user licence (cost GBP 50-00) or Product ID 201689 for a site licence (cost GBP 150-00).

As soon as your credit card details have been verified you will receive your temporary password from Sw-Reg.

If you are operating your computer from behind a firewall you will not be able to use Sw-Reg’s secure ordering system.  In this case we would recommend using PsL’s non-secure option (their site has both secure and non-secure servers).  If you are not sure if you have a firewall in place check with your system administrator.  If you don’t have a system administrator you can be almost certain you also do not have a firewall.  In any case, Sw-Reg’s server will advise you if you have a problem when you access it.

You should use the Registration | Temporary function on the main menu to enter your company name and software key to disable the shareware time limit and reminders.   Sw-Reg will advise us of your registration and we will send you your permanent key.  This may take a few days, but usually occurs within 48 hours.  Please ensure that you give Sw-Reg your correct email address so that we can get this key to you as quickly as possible.

If you have problems getting through to our site you can go directly to their site at www.sw-reg.com and registering using the Product ID  201688 for a single user licence (cost GBP 50-00) or Product ID 201689 for a site licence (cost GBP 150-00).

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Ordering from Shareware Australia
Ordering from Shareware-Australia

Shareware-Australia are based in Australia (believe it or not).  They have facilities for you to order by WWW, phone, fax, email and snail mail.  You can pay with your Australian credit card (eg Bankcard) or international credit card (eg Visa and M/C), by cheque drawn on an Australian bank, with Australian money orders, bank transfer or with cash.

Shareware-Australia quote all their prices in Australian dollars.  The prices in Australian dollars are $Aus 125-00 for a single user licence, and $Aus400-00 for a site licence.

Once you have received your password from Shareware-Australia, you should use the Registration | Temporary function on the main menu to enter your company name and software key to disable the shareware time limit and reminders.   Shareware Australia will advise us of your registration and we will send you your permanent key.  This may take a few days, but usually occurs within 48 hours.  Please ensure that you give Shareware-Australia your correct email address so that we can get this key to you as quickly as possible.

Online via the WWW:  Go to our Web site at http://users.lia.net/katmar/ and click on the link to Project Risk Analysis and then on the link to Online Ordering.  Then click on the link to Shareware-Australia and fill in the form that appears.  As soon as your credit card details have been verified you will receive your temporary password from them.  If you have problems getting through to our web site you can go directly to Shareware-Australia at www.shareware-australia.com and select the “PRODUCTS” link.

By Fax: Please use the Fax order form and send it to (02) 9565-2362 (Australia).  Please type or block print very plainly.  The order form is also included in the .ZIP file as the file SWAFAX.TXT  This is a plain ASCII file that you can load into your word processor and fill in electronically if you do not have a typewriter. (Does anyone still have typewriters?!?)

By Email: Use the Fax order form to see what information you need to send. Send your email message to sales@shareware-australia.com.  You can also load the file SWAFAX.TXT into your email editor and fill it in before sending.

By Snail Mail: Please use the Fax order form (or the file SWAFAX.TXT) and send it to :-

Shareware-Australia

POBox 1075

Maroubra NSW 2035

Australia

By Phone: Please use the Fax order form as a check list for the information you will have to provide when you phone your order through.  Shareware-Australia’s operators are available on (02) 9565-2339  (Australia).

Help file generated by HelpWriter for Delphi.


Ordering from Chempute Software in South Africa

Chempute Software specialise in engineering software.  They are not generally in the business of shareware, but thanks to a long standing association with them, they take orders on our behalf in South Africa.

Their address details are :-

Contact : 	Dave Wickham

Tel : 	(031) 764-6840

Fax : 	(031) 764-5934

Email :	sales@chempute.com

Web :	http://www.chempute.com

Address :	PO Box 870,  Westville 3630,  South Africa

Chempute carry a very comprehensive range of technical software and their entire catalog can be browsed on-line at their Web site (address above).  You can download demo versions of most of their range from that address.

If you phone or fax your order number through to them they will be able to give you a temporary password immediately to convert your evaluation copy of PRA to a registered version.  They will then advise us of your registration and we will send you your permanent password.

            Help file generated by HelpWriter for Delphi.


Other Software from Katmar Software

At present Katmar Software has a range of three shareware programs.  Apart from Project Risk Analysis we publish WASP (Water and Steam Properties) and PACKCOL, which performs hydraulic calculations for columns with random packings.  Further details and evaluation copies are available from our homepage.

            Help file generated by HelpWriter for Delphi.


Shareware-Australia Fax Order Form

Use this form only if you are ordering by FAX or mail from Shareware-Australia.  DO NOT SEND CREDIT CARD ORDERS DIRECTLY TO KATMAR SOFTWARE.  Send the completed form to :-

**NOTE**  This address is for

Shareware-Australia	ORDERS ONLY. Any questions on

PO Box 1075	the status of the shipment of

Maroubra NSW 2035	the order, refunds,

Australia	registration options, product

details, technical support etc

FAX  (02) 9565-2362	must be directed to Katmar

Software's South African address.

Registration for    :	Project Risk Analysis by Katmar Software

                                                       	 __

Licence type    :	Single User Licence $Aus 125-00	|__|	(tick one)

Site Licence $Aus 400-00	|__|

Note : Prices above are in Australian Dollars

Registration Details

Your Name 	: ________________________________________________

Your Company Name 	: ________________________________________________

Your Address 	: ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

Your Email Address	: ________________________________________________

Your Fax Number	: ________________________________________________

Credit Card Details

Name as on Card	: ________________________________________________

Billing Address	: ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

  ________________________________________________

Credit Card type 	: Bankcard / Mastercard/Eurocard / Visa  (circle one)

Credit Card Number	: ________________________________________________

Expiration Date	: ___________________________ ( mm/yy )

Total Amount in $Aus 	: ___________________________ (see cost above)

Signature	: ___________________________   Date : ______________

Help file generated by HelpWriter for Delphi.