SB PROP @ ARRL $ARLP045                                                         
ARLP045 Propagation DE KT7H                                                     
QST DE W1AW                                                                     
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045                                       
From Tad Cook, KT7H                                                            
Seattle, WA  November 12, 1993                                                  
To All Radio Amateurs                                                           
                                                                                
Solar flux was up a couple of points last week.  Geomagnetic                    
disturbances quieted down after an A index of 40 last Friday,                   
November 4.  The K index peaked at six at 1200z, but calmed to                  
between two and four throughout the Sweepstakes contest over the                
weekend.                                                                        
                                                                                
Activity is expected to drop for the near term, with solar flux near            
85 around November 16.  Then it should rise above 100 after the                 
beginning of December.  An active geomagnetic field is expected                 
around Thanksgiving, and again a week later, both due to recurring              
coronal holes.                                                                  
                                                                                
When solar flux is low, the higher frequencies will suffer.  Best               
worldwide propagation should be on 20, 30 and 40 meters.  If the                
K index is below three, look for good 160 and 80 meter propagation              
during the longer nights as we move toward the Winter season.                   
                                                                                
Sunspot Numbers from November 4 through 10 were 26, 43, 47, 44, 42,             
27 and 40, with a mean of 38.4.  10.7 cm flux was 95.7, 96.4, 97,               
95, 91.9, 90.5 and 90, with a mean of 93.8.                                     
                                                                                
The path projection for this week is from Excelsior, Minnesota (near            
Minneapolis) to Cyprus.                                                         
                                                                                
80 meters should be open from 2030z to 0600z, and best from 0100z to            
0330z.  40 meters looks good from 1830z to 0730z, peaking from 2300z            
to 0430z.  30 meters should be usable around the clock, except from             
0930z to 1300z.  The best period should be from 2200z to 0500z, and             
signals may drop out briefly around 0700z before bouncing back for a            
couple of hours.  20 meters looks very good on most days from 1330z             
to 1800z, and on some days on through 0630z.  17 meters looks                   
promising from 1430z to 1730z on most days, and on a few days on                
through 0100z.  15 meters may have some openings from 1500z to                  
1730z.  The most promising time is around 1630z.  12 and 10 meters              
do not look like good bets, but 12 meters may have a few openings               
around 1500z to 1700z, and 10 meters from 1600z to 1630z.                       
/EX                                                                             
